Security Incidents: Trends and Patterns

In Sudan... 231 humanitarian workers have died, 281 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 155 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

2 Background: The Conflict

Sudan faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis as civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its third year. Since April 2023, approximately 150,000 people have died and 14 million been displaced. Three million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, while 30 million need humanitarian assistance. The UN warns Sudan faces the “world’s largest hunger crisis.”

The conflict stems from a power struggle between SAF leader Burhan and RSF commander Hemedti after they jointly overthrew dictator Bashir in 2019. Foreign involvement has complicated peace efforts. Recently, SAF has gained territory around Khartoum, while RSF continues committing atrocities in Darfur, raising concerns of renewed genocide.

2.1 Recent Escalation

Initial outbreak (2023):

  • Fighting began April 2023 in Khartoum between SAF and RSF
  • Violence spread quickly to Darfur, where RSF targeted non-Arab groups
  • RSF killed over 800 civilians in Ardamata during November attacks

SAF counteroffensive (2024-2025):

  • SAF recaptured much of Khartoum area by early 2025
  • SAF successfully ended the blockade around the city of Obeid that had been maintained by the RSF for two years.
  • Key gains include Omdurman city and a strategic oil refinery

Map of Incidents

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3 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

3.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents in Sudan

4 Nature of Security Incidents

4.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks

4.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

The most prevalent method of attack is shooting, underscoring the militarized nature of the conflict. Kidnapping and bodily assault are also common, reflecting tactics aimed at intimidation and disruption of humanitarian work. A significant portion of incidents are recorded as “unknown,” highlighting data gaps and the opacity of conflict environments. These attack types reflect the dangers posed to aid workers not only from crossfire but also from deliberate targeting.

4.2 Attack Contexts

Figure 3: Security incidents by attack context

4.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

Ambushes are by far the most frequent attack context, significantly surpassing other categories. This suggests both SAF and RSF frequently utilize element-of-surprise tactics, particularly along transport routes. The prevalence of ambushes indicates high risks associated with road travel, reinforcing the need for dynamic security planning, route risk assessments, and protection protocols, especially for humanitarian convoys.

5 Human Impact of Security Incidents

5.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 4: Total casualties by category

5.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

The impact of the conflict is disproportionately borne by Sudanese nationals, who account for the vast majority of those killed, wounded, and kidnapped. Nationals face nearly ten times more fatalities than international staff, emphasizing the local toll of the crisis. The high proportion of fatalities relative to injuries also suggests that many attacks are deliberately lethal. This underscores the need for context-specific strategies that prioritize national staff safety and psychological support.

6 Major Incidents

6.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1: Most impactful security incidents (by total affected)
Year Location Total Affected Killed Wounded Context Actor Type
3778 2023 Road 18 0 18 Ambush Unknown
384 2005 Road 17 0 17 Ambush Unknown
377 2005 Project site 15 0 15 Mob violence Aid recipient
260 2003 Road 10 8 2 Ambush Unknown
507 2006 Unknown 8 0 8 Ambush Unknown

6.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

The top five most impactful incidents span a wide timeframe—from the early 2000s during the height of the Darfur conflict to a recent event in 2023. Notably, several of the deadliest incidents occurred during roadside ambushes, highlighting the sustained vulnerability of transportation routes over decades. These high-impact events demonstrate the long-running and geographically dispersed nature of conflict in Sudan, with implications for both historical accountability and forward-looking risk mitigation.

For more detailed information on the Sudan conflict timeline, see the Council on Foreign Relations Conflict Tracker.

7 Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Key Findings

7.2 Key Findings

  • Incident spikes align with political turmoil: Major increases in attacks correspond to events like the Darfur conflict (2004–2006), Bashir’s removal (2019), the 2021 military coup, and the 2023 civil war.
  • 2024 marks the deadliest year: The SAF counteroffensive resulted in the highest number of incidents recorded, reflecting intense territorial battles and large-scale attacks.
  • Shooting is the most common attack method: Followed by kidnapping and bodily assault, indicating a mix of military-style violence and targeted intimidation.
  • Ambushes dominate attack contexts: The high frequency of ambushes suggests road travel is particularly dangerous and systematically targeted.
  • Sudanese nationals suffer the most: Nationals face significantly higher casualties than international staff, with a disproportionate number of deaths.
  • Long-term risk on transport routes: From 2003 to 2023, major incidents consistently occur along roads, showing persistent vulnerability to roadside attacks across decades.

7.3 Recommendations

7.4 Recommendations

7.4.1 For Security Planning

  • Conduct regular route risk assessments, especially on roads with a history of ambushes.
  • Use armed escorts for convoys in high-risk areas.
  • Tailor security protocols by region—urban areas like Khartoum vs. rural areas like Darfur.
  • Set evacuation thresholds based on real-time shifts in territorial control.

7.4.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

  • Enhance security info-sharing between national and international partners.
  • Pre-position essential supplies in hard-to-reach regions.
  • Use remote programming in RSF-held areas to reduce staff exposure.
  • Provide mental health support for staff affected by violence.

7.4.3 For Policy Development

  • Advocate for SAF–RSF-agreed humanitarian corridors, especially for road movements.
  • Support community protection in ethnically targeted zones.
  • Push for accountability through documentation of attacks on civilians and aid workers.
  • Enforce targeted sanctions against external suppliers of arms to RSF.

7.4.4 For Future Research

  • Study how shifts in control affect attack frequency and location.
  • Compare risks faced by national vs. international staff.
  • Assess damage to infrastructure like hospitals and clinics.
  • Evaluate which diplomatic efforts improve humanitarian access.

By providing a data-driven understanding of security patterns in Sudan, this analysis aims to contribute to safer and more effective operations in this challenging environment.