Security Incidents: Trends and Patterns
1 Executive Summary
2 Background: The Conflict
Sudan faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis as civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its third year. Since April 2023, approximately 150,000 people have died and 14 million been displaced. Three million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, while 30 million need humanitarian assistance. The UN warns Sudan faces the “world’s largest hunger crisis.”
The conflict stems from a power struggle between SAF leader Burhan and RSF commander Hemedti after they jointly overthrew dictator Bashir in 2019. Foreign involvement has complicated peace efforts. Recently, SAF has gained territory around Khartoum, while RSF continues committing atrocities in Darfur, raising concerns of renewed genocide.
2.1 Recent Escalation
Initial outbreak (2023):
- Fighting began April 2023 in Khartoum between SAF and RSF
- Violence spread quickly to Darfur, where RSF targeted non-Arab groups
- RSF killed over 800 civilians in Ardamata during November attacks
SAF counteroffensive (2024-2025):
- SAF recaptured much of Khartoum area by early 2025
- SAF successfully ended the blockade around the city of Obeid that had been maintained by the RSF for two years.
- Key gains include Omdurman city and a strategic oil refinery